How does the Confidence Index work?

Learn more about how the confidence index work, how it is updated and which data it is based on.

Sinay's ETA Prediction technology is backed by Artificial Intelligence and machine learning algorithms that provide results based on decades of historical data and real-time situational awareness.

ETA Predictions are delivered based on the data known at the time of the calculation - whether you are using the online ETA Calculator or automating predictions using API.

To help you understand how reliable the delivered prediction is, we have developed the Confidence Interval tool, which provides insight on how reliable and accurate the ETA prediction is at the time of its delivery.

How to interpret the Confidence Interval

The Confidence Interval can deliver the following information:

A time-frame representing the margin of error of the prediction based on the known information at the time of the calculation.
Detailed explanations for the margin of error. Here is the list of all the possible explanations displayed in the Confidence Interval and what they mean.

Explanation	What it means
AIS message is old.	AIS plays an important role in calculating an ETA. If the AIS message is old, our system may not have the latest vessel position, or its actual real-time speed which impacts the reliability of our prediction.
Missing vessel data (speed, destination, draught…). Information may be updated shortly, try refreshing ETA prediction.	Vessel details are important to calculate an ETA: for instance, draught may impact which route a vessel can take.
Vessel is far from known routes to destination port.	Our system has mapped out main maritime routes worldwide. This message indicates that the vessel is not currently on a route leading to the destination port you have specified. This can mean it is currently en route to another port, that it is taking an alternative route or that it is in the process of rejoining a main route.
No major maritime routes known to destination port. Vessel is likely to have intermediate stops.	This message indicates that from the current position of the vessel, no known routes lead to the destination port you have specified. This can mean that the vessel is en route to another port, that it is taking an alternative route or that it is in the process of rejoining a main route.
Insufficient data due to low historical traffic.	This message indicates that a route to the destination port you have specified has been identified but due to low historical traffic, our algorithms have been trained on less data than main maritime routes.
Vessels have various behaviors on this route.	This means that vessels in this area and headed in the direction of the destination port you have selected have varying behaviors: high speed or low speed, circling to wait, etc. which impacts the accuracy of the prediction provided by our system.
Vessel is far from its destination. Update ETA Prediction daily to get an accurate result.	If the tracked vessel is several days away from the destination you have specified, many events can occur during its journey, impacting its speed, course etc. Refreshing ETA calculation regularly ensures that the latest vessel information is taken into account and that the prediction stays updated.

What to do if the Confidence Interval displays an important error margin?

If your ETA Prediction is delivered with a high error margin - this means something is missing from our calculation. For example, sometimes vessel AIS can be out of reach and therefore, our calculation cannot compute real-time speed.

We encourage you to refresh the calculation every day if the tracked vessel is over 2 days out of its destination, and at least twice a day once it is under 2 days out of its destination.